THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMICS CONDITIONS ON INVESTMENTS IN NORTH MACEDONIA
Gazmend DEHARI
Abstract
Knowing the right Macroeconomic conditions is of key importance for enterprises to make well-informed investments decisions. Regardless of the vast empirical studies on the predictability of these conditions, no consensus have emerged, on what is the most likely model to use for such forecasts. The purpose of this paper is to focus on certain macroeconomics indicators that will shape an environment at a degree of stability intended to enable investors i.e. enterprises to enhance their investments. The macroeconomic determinants considered are as following: GDP growth, inflation, unemployment rate, interest rate, trade and housing prices. This studies goal is to examine how the stated macroeconomic indicators fluctuations will affect the level of investment in North Macedonia. The sample includes all the available yearly observations data for the period 2000-2024. All the data come from the World Development Indicators database (World Bank 2025), except for the independent variable of housing price index, which came from the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia (NBRNM). The investment variable, depended variable, is measured as a foreign direct investment net inflow as percentage of GDP. The independent variables included in the baseline model are: GDP growth, in terms of annual percentage, Inflation which refers to the consumer prices as annual percentage, Unemployment rate, measured as a percentage of total labor force, modeled according to the International Labor Organization (ILO) and Trade, measured as sum of goods and services imported and exported as a percentage of GDP. The baseline model is constructed as a linear regression model, Ordinary Least Squares model (OLS).
Pages: 84 - 91